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Breaking into the world’s most-visited art institution in the middle of the day, grabbing eight pieces of priceless historical gems and vanishing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, carried out for international notoriety and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who observe trends in international art crime, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a string of smash-and-grab thefts centered more on the material value of precious stones or materials than the artifacts’ significance, continuing a pattern that has appeared over the last ten years in Europe, Britain and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to take valuable jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said Christopher A Marinello. “The answer is simple: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is more secure.”

A spate of violent retail store thefts indicate that many outlets have strengthened their security in the past few years, with security personnel on their locations and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, on the other hand, look more exposed, in part because of the inherent factor of being public-facing institutions in historic buildings, and partly the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the world have reduced spending on police and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including jewelry pieces made up of precious stones and 631 diamonds, the crown of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a hugely valuable diadem once owned by a royal that the thieves dropped by the roadside on their way out – has inevitably drawn comparisons with the historical theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, performed by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better points of reference may be the recent theft of jewellery from a German institution worth over millions, the taking of a multi-million pound gold toilet from a UK landmark the that year, the recent robbery of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of thefts of collector items from American institutions.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” explained Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would find it hard to find a buyer. “It's impossible to trade something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the licit market”, said Lynda Albertson of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the cultural authorities has released images of the pieces. Even a individual buyer or an sales venue would want to see paperwork confirming proper ownership before handling such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, museums were often hesitant to announce publicly about the loss of well-known works of art and would remain quiet out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more reported on, the keeping and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a plan to conceal it, maybe by passing it around difficult criminal actors,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an accomplice telling the police to cash in a reward.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was vanishingly unlikely that the theft had been commissioned. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you acquire these, if you get caught, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot bequeath it to your children.”

Modifying stolen works by melting down or re-cutting does reduce the worth. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because modern cutting techniques give stones a larger and brighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or reduce value for a coverup.

Importantly, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the evidence of the crime. “My guess is that the Louvre thieves will try to take the items to places with gem knowledge like a country, another nation or even as close as a city, and find someone to remove the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the institution, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be published next month pointing out “significant” and “ongoing” slow progress in updating systems and observing that security cameras were missing in multiple areas. But security experts say showing valuable objects in historic buildings with a steady stream of guests comes with dangers that are impossible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are much harder to secure,” explained an art crime professor. “They often have large accessible windows that makes it easy for thieves to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for buildings should be designed “like a fortress”, noted Peter Stürmann. “It should include multiple levels to deter attackers.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with advanced surveillance systems or integrated vibration sensors that alert about a broken glass in immediately, but historic institutions may be reluctant to alter their exteriors. Laser scanners can be difficult to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be disabled during the daytime as crowds walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which took place between morning hours local time, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when security rotate and prior to the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as extra protection.”

Technological progress may have thrown up new gadgets that can raise the alarm more quickly and efficiently, but it has also provided robbers new tools with which to circumvent protections. In the city, the robbers accessed the museum’s first-floor window with a mobile equipment and breached a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the conversation in the country about the historic structure had primarily centered on visitor management in the past decade, and less on security.

The museum has an in-house team of about 50 permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mostly to protect the collection from blazes and water damage. “There is no rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all depends on political will and money, and currently the nation lacks sufficient money.”