Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.